In another sign of economic weakness, the amount of people looking for greener pastures for jobs is below pre-pandemic levels, especially in key sectors, 5 charts.
The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover report shows continued weakness in openings, hiring and separations.
The latest data is for May 2024, so the payroll report is about a month behind.
Job openings
- On the last business day of May, the number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million. This measure decreased by 1.2 million during the year.
- Job openings fell in accommodation and food services (-147,000) and in private education services (-34,000). The number of jobs increased in state and local government, excluding education (+117,000), durable goods manufacturing (+97,000) and the federal government (+37,000).
State and local openness are directly linked to increased immigration. The weakness in accommodation and food service is highlighted.
WORKERS
- Employment In May, the number of employed persons was little changed at 5.8 million.
- During the year, employment decreased by 415,000.
Partitions
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- Quits are employee-initiated voluntary separations.
- Layoffs and layoffs are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.
Layoffs by sector in thousands
The two largest sources of jobs in the recovery were in accommodation and food service, and leisure and hospitality.
The number of dropouts in those areas is below pre-pandemic levels. Otherwise, things are back to normal or near normal.
Job openings, hires, separations, departures
Job openings have fallen from a peak of 11.8 million in April 2022 to 8.1 million in May 2025.
In just over two years, openings fell by 3.6 million, a 30.1 percent drop.
However, openings are around 1.2 million as of February 2020. That’s assuming you believe the numbers.
It costs nothing to post online, and some of these positions are filled, some are scams, and some are along the lines of “If the perfect person comes along, we might be interested.”
In contrast, layoffs and departures are hard data.
Working leverage ratio
The attrition rate is a measure of the willingness or ability of workers to leave their jobs.
The labor leverage ratio (LLR), defined as layoffs divided by the sum of layoffs and layoffs, shows whether labor or employers are setting the pace. The indicator is currently in neutral.
LLR is a very lagged measure that tends to sink well after the onset of a recession. This is when people fear losing their jobs more than any desire to seek greener pastures.
The report now shows a bullish pattern, as might be expected when overall economic data is weakening.
A string of very weak economic data dampens the GDP forecast
Key point on actual final sales
Almost everyone focuses on the headline number of 1.7 percent. But his Real Final Sales (RFS) matter. The difference between the numbers is the inventory adjustment, Change in Private Inventories (CIPI), which declines to zero over time.
The RFS is the final real estimate for the economy and is what the NBER will use to call a recession.
At 1.1 percent and falling fast, the RFS looks very recessionary.
What happened?
On July 1st, I noticed A string of very weak economic data dampens the GDP forecast
July 1: In response to ISM and construction spending, the contribution to gross domestic private investment fell from 1.51 percentage points (PP) to 1.20 PP.
June 27: GDPNow’s contribution to net exports fell from -0.56 PP to -0.95 PP.
These two items account for 70 basis points, 0.70 PP of the decline in the GDP forecast now.
Elsewhere, new home sales, housing starts, existing home sales, new orders for durable goods and even real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending are very weak.
I am increasingly convinced that a recession has started or soon will.