Alphabet’s ( GOOG , GOOGL ) biggest-ever acquisition could face a backlash from the U.S. regardless of who wins the White House this November.
The reported $23 billion bid to buy fast-growing cloud cybersecurity firm Wiz is the kind that is almost certain to draw attention from competition watchdogs in Washington, along with the inevitable delays.
A US regulatory review could prevent a tie-up next year, leaving a new administration tasked with assessing its competitive risks.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Alphabet, which is already fighting antitrust challenges on other fronts, will be free of another legal battle.
“The current administration looks at vertical issues more than has been the case historically,” Colin Kass, a partner with Proskauer and co-chair of the firm’s antitrust group, told Yahoo Finance.
“But even the previous administration, under Trump, looked at vertical issues even more than previous administrations.”
The Biden administration has tried to curb what it sees as anti-competitive behavior in a number of industries, from health care to groceries to technology.
But a second Trump administration may not be much friendlier, especially to Silicon Valley giants.
When Trump was president last decade, his administration launched antitrust investigations into Apple ( AAPL ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Meta ( META ), and Alphabet’s Google. His administration also filed a lawsuit against Google, targeting its dominance as a search engine.
The search engine case, which the Biden administration decided to pursue, ended earlier this year, and a decision from a judge is expected soon.
Trump suggested in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday that big tech companies need some restraint to limit risks to children, though he added that he didn’t want to go after them violently because the approach could destroy them.
And Trump’s new vice presidential nominee, Sen. JD Vance, has called for Google to be broken up while also expressing admiration for Lina Khan, the head of the Federal Trade Commission, who has led the review of a number of merger efforts in the tech world. .
“I think I look at Lina Khan as one of the few people in the Biden administration who I think is doing a pretty good job,” Vance said in February.
A former FTC official, who spoke to Yahoo Finance and asked to remain anonymous, agreed that an Alphabet-Wiz deal would prompt a review regardless of who is in the White House.
But a Trump-led DOJ or FTC, the former official said, would be more likely to favor concessions from Alphabet over litigation if a review raised competition concerns.
Regulators may even investigate for evidence to learn whether Google is already engaged in the cloud cybersecurity market in hopes of challenging the company on the grounds that the deal poses a potential, rather than existing, competitive threat.
The former FTC official said the evidence may not support the theory, but such an investigation could be worth exploring for regulators because they are interested in further developing the law on potential threats.
This, too, can take a considerable amount of time.
If a deal to buy Wiz does go forward, either the DOJ or the FTC will lead any ensuing investigation.
In the preliminary stages, M&A reviews typically last 30 days, with room for extension. If officials decide to move beyond the preliminary review into what’s known as a second request, the additional investigation could take six to 18 months.
Only then, after a second request is met, can a legal challenge to the transaction occur.
“So we’re talking at least eight months before there’s an actual challenge and, more likely, a year or more before there’s an actual challenge,” Kass said.
Antitrust experts said competition concerns could include fears that a buyout would give Alphabet’s Google an opportunity to disadvantage rivals or reduce competition in a downstream market.
New York University professor Lawrence White said an Alphabet-Wiz deal could also be scrutinized by regulators abroad.
That would pose additional complications for companies as the EU continues to turn up the heat on US tech giants.
Just last month, European regulators hit Microsoft ( MSFT ) with an antitrust charge a day after the same regulatory body accused Apple of violating European Union competition law.
Alexis Keenan is a legal reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow Alexis on Twitter @alexiskweed.
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