China is planning its first mission to hit an asteroid in the name of planetary defense. The mission will serve a dual purpose: One spacecraft will hit the asteroid while its partner observes the space rock to learn more about the solar system and its formation.
The China National Space Administration (CNSA) mission may have already chosen its target — near-Earth object (NEO) 2015 XF261, an asteroid nearly 100 feet (30 meters) across.
According to the database of small bodies managed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), 2015 XF261 last came relatively close to Earth just this week, on Tuesday (July 9), when it passed within 31 million miles (50 million kilometers) from our country. the planet. The space rock was traveling at about 26,000 mph (42,000 km/h), roughly 30 times faster than the speed of sound.
The nonprofit Planetary Society reported that this is the latest development in asteroid impact mission planning for China, a country that has recently become increasingly interested in planetary defense.
Connected: 2 asteroids just zipped by Earth and NASA caught footage of the action
The Planetary Society noted a recent paper in the Journal of Deep Space Exploration discussing the proposed mission to target 2015 XF261.
“For China’s first in-orbit verification mission for near-Earth asteroid defense, a defensive disposal demonstration will be conducted on the potential danger of near-Earth asteroids impacting the Earth,” the study said.
“The scientific objectives of the in-orbit verification of the asteroid defense and its specific mission of scientific exploration will be designed and proposed,” he adds. “A scientific analysis of the payload requirement will be performed and payload configuration plans and exploration mission requirements will be proposed to provide a decision-making basis for future implementation of asteroid defense missions.”
After the impact of DART
The planned mission follows in the footsteps of a groundbreaking NASA planetary defense mission, the Dual Asteroid Redirect Test (DART), which in September 2022 touched down with the smallest body in the Didymos binary asteroid system.
The impact of the 1,260-pound (570-kilogram) DART spacecraft on the moon Dimorphos, which orbits a larger 2,560-foot (780 m) asteroid called Didymos, at 14,000 mph (22,500 km/h) was deemed successful. The impact shifted the orbits of the two asteroids and showed that, given enough time, a kinetic impact could deflect a smaller asteroid from a near-Earth collision.
In October 2024, the European Space Agency (ESA) will launch the Hera spacecraft into the Didymos system to further assess the impact of the DART mission. Hera is expected to meet Dimorphos and Didymos in 2026.
China’s two-spacecraft mission 2015 XF261 will combine the work of DART and Hera, impacting the NEO and observing its target for six months to a year after impact.
Asteroids like 2015 XF261 are thought to have formed from material left over from the formation of planets about 4.6 billion years ago. As such, they offer the opportunity to study the “pristine” material that was the building blocks of the worlds of the solar system, including Earth.
The CNSA mission is expected to launch before 2030, and the final choice of its NEO target will depend on its launch schedule. In April 2024, SINA Technology reported that Wu Weiren, director of the China Deep Space Research Laboratory (DSEL), set a firmer date for the mission’s launch, stating that it will blast off in or around 2027.
2015 XF261 is set to fly past Earth in March and May 2027, but the asteroid will still be 20 million miles (32 million km) from our planet at that time, and CNSA will need time to reach it. DART hit Dimorphos when its system was only 7 million miles from Earth, and that trip took 10 months to complete.
CNSA may take another shot at 2015 XF261 in April 2028, when the asteroid will be about 13 million miles (21 million km) away. But the best chance for such a mission appears to come in April 2029, when the asteroid will come within 4.2 million miles (6.8 million km) of Earth. Another good chance will come in April 2030, when 2015 XF261 approaches Earth within about 4.4 million miles (7.1 million km).
This is not the first asteroid impact mission proposed by CNSA. In 2023, the Chinese space agency appeared to be planning a planetary defense test to launch in 2025.
This mission would have set its sights on another asteroid, known as 2019 VL5. It is not known why CNSA appears to have switched from this NEO, which is also about 100 feet (30 m) across, to 2015 XF261.