WASHINGTON — As NASA moves forward with a crewed lunar landing on the Artemis 3 mission in September 2026, the agency’s own analysis estimates a nearly one-in-three chance that the landing will be at least a year and a half late.
That rating came from a confirmation review for the Human Landing System (HLS) initial capability project, which is supporting the development of SpaceX’s Starship lunar lander to be used on Artemis 3. The confirmation review, known in agency parlance as Key Decision Point (KDP) C, determines the costs and schedule of commitments for NASA projects.
The confirmation review, which took place in December 2023, set a February 2028 baseline for that project at a joint confidence level of 70%. That means there’s a 70% chance Starship will be ready for a lunar landing — a milestone officially known as a lunar orbit retrieval — by February 2028.
“The joint cost and schedule reliability score is an integrated analysis of a project’s cost, schedule, risk, and uncertainty that indicates a project’s likelihood of meeting a given set of cost and schedule objectives,” the Office said. of Government Responsibilities in a June 20. report evaluating major NASA programs.
That date is nearly a year and a half behind NASA’s current September 2026 plan for Artemis 3. The joint 70% confidence level also means the agency believes there’s a 30% chance the Starship landing won’t be ready by after February 2028. .
The confirmation review, which was not widely publicized by NASA when it was completed, was mentioned in the GAO report. He noted that the schedule estimate is independent of the readiness of other aspects of the mission, such as the Space Launch System, the Orion spacecraft and the new lunar spacesuits.
In a statement to SpaceNews, NASA confirmed the dates mentioned in the GAO report, while reiterating that Artemis 3 remains on schedule for September 2026. “The basic cost and schedule figures in the GAO report are accurate, risk-based estimates in confidence common of 70%. level (JCL). The agency’s use of a 70% JCL to inform baseline estimates is a conservative approach that assumes broad realization of risk,” he said.
“NASA continues to have confidence in SpaceX as a provider to help achieve the Artemis III mission,” the statement added.
KDP-C also set a cost of $4.9 billion for the initial HLS capability at the same 70% joint confidence level. This includes the $2.9 billion fixed-price contract for SpaceX, prices for SpaceX, Blue Origin and Dynetics in the earlier phase of the project, and NASA project office costs.
Cathy Koerner, NASA’s associate administrator for exploration systems development, reiterated the 2026 date for Artemis 3 at a June 7 meeting of the National Academies’ Board of Space Studies. This meeting took place one day after the fourth integrated test flight of the Starship and its Super Heavy booster.
“From the status of the Human Landing System project, SpaceX continues to make great progress,” she said, citing the latest flight and other work, such as an integrated test of the elevator the astronauts will use to land. on the surface from the Starship cockpit.
However, she noted that the HLS effort faces “many technical challenges.” Another major milestone, she said, was a cryogenic fuel transfer test in space, which she said was planned for early 2025.
The GAO report also emphasized the importance of this test. During the confirmation review, a permanent review board “recommended that SpaceX’s propellant-to-space transfer tests inform the program’s critical design review, currently scheduled for 2025.”
At the Space Studies Board meeting, Koerner dismissed reports that NASA was considering an alternative plan that would test Starship and Orion in low Earth orbit, analogous to the Apollo 9 mission, but acknowledged that the agency was planning for contingencies.
She said NASA did a lot of “next-worst-failure” assessments, looking at what happens if a mission element was unavailable. “We’re always making those kinds of backup plans,” she said. “We haven’t made any changes to the current plan as I described it here today, but we have a lot of people looking at a lot of backup plans so we can do our due diligence.”