In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a watch for a possible solar storm. A giant group of sunspots was burning up and spewing material toward Earth.
A few hours later, the watch was replaced by a warning: A storm classified as a G4 — on a “G” scale of 1 to 5 — was coming. That weekend, solar activity was even stronger, creating the northern lights that dazzled people as far south as Arizona. Behind the scenes, space weather scientists were working around the clock to ensure that the potential for catastrophic effects, such as widespread power outages or communications disruptions, remained at a minimum.
According to Mike Bettwy, a meteorologist and chief of operations for NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, the lack of data can make forecasting solar storms difficult. The agency is working to change that: On Tuesday, SpaceX is scheduled to launch the agency’s GOES-U spacecraft, the latest in a family of satellites designed to monitor the sun’s influence on our atmosphere, particularly as it approaches a peak in its activity cycle. .
Mr Bettwy spoke to The New York Times about what goes into predicting space weather and the challenge of trying to understand an often unpredictable sun. This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
How does the space weather forecast system work?
Our Boulder office is one of many regional watch centers around the world. There are others in Sweden, the United Kingdom and Australia. We collaborate by comparing and sharing our forecasting models, which are all slightly different.
Similar to terrestrial weather, storm watches go off first and a warning is issued when we are more certain of what is coming. Alerts are issued when the weather has been observed.
We work regularly with NASA’s Space Weather Analysis Office from the Moon to Mars, which does a lot of computer modeling of the sun. And we give a nod to NASA’s Space Radiation Analysis Group whenever there may be potential radiation exposure to astronauts on the International Space Station.
We also talk to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which ensures the power grid stays up and running every day for what may come. They then inform their affiliates across the country and Canada.
What instruments are used to monitor solar activity?
The ultraviolet solar imager, which is on the GOES-16 satellite, is what we use the most. It monitors the temperatures on the sun’s surface and shows us the evolution of sunspots and their surrounding environments.
Two other critical satellites are NASA’s Advanced Composite Explorer and our Deep Space Climate Observatory. These are about a million miles from Earth. That sounds far, but there are actually 93 million miles between us and the sun, and the plasma flowing from it travels at great speed. By the time it reaches these satellites, we really only have about an hour or less to know that something is going to hit us.
There is also a system of magnetometers, sensors that detect changes in the sun’s magnetic field, scattered around the world.
How can the forecasting system be improved?
More satellites would be incredibly helpful. Ideally – and this will never happen, because it is not financially feasible – we would have a satellite every million miles between the Earth and the Sun. With more satellites, we could see how the solar material evolves and changes as it approaches us.
The new GOES-U satellite will have a coronagraph to take images of the sun and get us higher resolution data to help with forecasting.
Better space weather modeling is also being developed. With terrestrial weather, there is a lot of data. We are absolutely spoiled with tons of observations. With space weather, we just don’t have it. It’s hard to make tough decisions with just one or two pieces of key data.
We are also working to change our watch, warning and alert system. Right now, we don’t actually have the ability to release a G5 watch. When we release a G4 watch, it technically means G4 or greater. And with caveats, we can only release up to one G3.
We are working with our international partners to review this. Not only will it give us the ability to communicate more accurately, but it will be easier for people without technical knowledge to understand what we are talking about.
Isn’t it scary to know that we are at the whim of an unpredictable sun?
It can be scary. But over the past few decades, we’ve learned how to live with the sun. We have learned his power and what he can do. Most agencies have adequate precautions to deal with it.
When you have a really strong storm, there is always the possibility that it will have a bigger impact than we planned for. And this is the part that keeps us up at night. We want to make sure that even during a worst-case scenario, everything will be okay.
What is the worst case scenario?
The Carrington event of 1859 is like the granddaddy of space weather events. It was the most intense geomagnetic storm ever recorded, with widespread impact on communications across the globe.
We live in a different world now. Technology has come a long way since then. So that’s what we’re trying to prepare for. If we have another Carrington event, we want our infrastructure – the power grid, satellites, aviation and internet – to remain, for the most part, operational.
What should we expect as the sun approaches maximum activity?
The sun is certainly entering its most active phase. A few days after the last solar storm, we had one of the strongest flares we’ve seen since 2005. It came from the same group of sunspots, just before it spun off the west side of the sun.
But we don’t know when solar maximum happens until it has. The general consensus is that it will be between late 2024 and early 2026. Over the next two years, the probability of getting more G4 events is quite high. G5 activity is a little more uncertain, but the chances of seeing it again are likely.
You can prepare for space weather the same way you prepare for hurricane or tornado season. Have emergency kits ready. Be prepared for outages and power outages.
I was working at NASA during the Halloween blizzard of 2003, and my biggest takeaway from it was that it could have been worse. Now, more than 20 years later, our overall readiness is even greater. So even if we do have a more significant event than what we saw in early May, I’d like to think that the fallout will be fairly minimal.